Time to share some up to the minute information on what has happened since the start of the second quarter in the local real estate market. Things have really changed in the last month as the progression of the virus has altered our behaviors and as economic activity responded to the Governor shutting down non essential businesses back on the 13th of March. First some data, then some conclusions. There is a lot of meat here so I hope you will stay with me through the end of this post as this information is highly relevant to anyone looking at making a move of any sort this year. Currently there are just over 3,000 homes on the market in the Northern Virginia Region. That figure is down, year over year, 22% from 2019, and the 2019 figure is down 26% from the 2018 figure! So we remain, as we have for years, in a limited inventory situation, even with the lower current demand. Contracts in the last week compared to last year are down 36%, but in the good news category sales this week were 707, up from 627 the week before. So within the context of the current economy sales are still strong. Last year at this time we had a 1 month supply of homes on the market. This week it’s only 1.2 months! Last year the rental supply was .9 months supply (that’s “point 9”) and now it’s only .6%. The last really relevant statistic is the Days on Market figures. Currently the median is only 6 days, while the average lags substantially behind at 22 days. So as always good homes priced and marketed properly are zooming of the market and those that are not are languishing a bit more and/or having to take price reductions. About 13% of the market has reduced their prices.
So what does all that mean? A good number of folks have decided for safety and disruption reasons not to have their homes on the market, and others who for similar reasons have suspended their searches. But those who have not are full speed ahead and homes are selling and buyers are finding homes. These deals are MUCH tougher to put together now and get to closing due to what is going on in the mortgage market (refer to my previous post as well as one I’ll be putting out in the coming days) but us professionals are getting them done. Those that are out are out but those that are in are in! If you need to sell there are still plenty of buyers out there. You just might only have one or two contracts instead of a half dozen. If you are a buyer there are still homes to sell, and the reduced competition creates some buying opportunities for you that might not have existed just 30 days ago. Overlaying this all are incredibly low interest rates (low 3’s) for conventional conforming loans. Access to Jumbo money is much, much tougher but reach out to me as I have some resources in that realm.
Anecdotally with my company and our friends from other firms in the region we are seeing way more people suspending their searches than are pulling their homes off the market. What that tells me is that when this all ends, as it inevitably will, and we return to some level of normalcy there is going to be an increased degree of competition for homes (again!).
If you are considering buying, selling or refinancing anytime this year reach out to me. Up to the day focused, relevant, accurate and high level information and resources are more important than ever to making wise decisions in the real estate realm.
Stay safe and hope to talk to you soon.
It’s a good life.
Chris
