The consensus of our Club: “The Fall Will be GOOD!”
Reading the tea leaves this month has been really interesting. There are some contrarian indicators but the sum of all of our individual businesses has us feeling conditionally bullish for the Fall.
Here is what we are seeing. On the positive side the median number of days on the market is 20 days. However, the average is over double, at 43 days. The math inclined among you will recognize what that means. We have a nice group that is selling very quickly and another that is sitting for much longer periods of time.
If you follow my blog by now you know why. Homes that are in poor condition or have not been properly prepared for the market are sitting. Many are suffering from the double whammy of unrealistic pricing.
Inventory continuous to be annoyingly low. 8,012 at the end of July and now down to 7,405 the second week of August. You can see why one might be tempted to push prices from these figures but it’s just not happening. Why? Here are some of the largest competing factors.
Rates continue to be incredibly cooperative and Millennials are starting to leave the basement and enter the market. First time buyers are the necessary engine to prime the move up market. This is an incredibly positive development on many levels.
Counter balancing that is that while the local economy is strong there is broad acknowledgement that it is tenuous. We have all seen the pull back in the public sector locally. Wage growth is actually down in NOVA. This will be the first administration in history to never post at least one year of at least 3% annual economic growth.
This is how we get to a limited inventory market cleaved down the middle. Properly prepped, priced and promoted homes flying off the shelf and then everyone else.
So in conclusion, while it is August if you are willing to get your home ready for sale you will reap some excellent rewards for going to market now! Be a contrarian!
It’s a good life.
Chris
